Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. Thi...

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy making: art or science? - Lecture by Mervyn King

Market Concentration, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Monetary Policy

This paper studies the effect of market structure and macroeconomic uncertainty on the transmission of monetary policy. We motivate our analysis with a simple model which predicts that: 1) investment and production in more concentrated sectors are more affected by demand changes and 2) high uncertainty makes investment and production more sensitive to demand changes. The empirical analysis esti...

Doing science making art

It is a challenge to balance doing both science and art, but I attempt both because each provides unique insight into perception and cognition, often to mutual benefit. The techniques I use in visual neuroscience (psychophysics, fMRI, microelectrode recording) are different from those I use in visual art (etching, watercolor and oil paint, glass and silk), but the process is always empirical, t...

Art or Science ?

THE CONSULTANT PHARMACIST JUNE 2003 VOL. 18, NO. 6 Although it has been a core component of consultant pharmacy practice for more than 30 years, drug regimen review (DRR) continues to evolve to accommodate many new additions to the increasingly complex medication armamentarium, and the changing needs of long-term care patient populations. In the first article in this three-part series, we explo...